The global automotive landscape is undergoing a tectonic shift, yet some developers cling to the fossil fuel era like drunk gamblers at a closing casino. Let’s be clear: anyone planning a new petrol station in 2025 is either delusional, ignorant, or actively sabotaging their own finances. Here’s how the numbers, markets, and basic common sense all scream “ABORT MISSION” and why Australia risks becoming a graveyard for stranded fossil fuel assets.
Global EV Adoption Is Accelerating Faster Than Your Grandma’s Prius
- 85 million EVs will be on roads globally by 2025 , a 33% surge from 2024.
- China and Europe dominate this shift, accounting for 82% of global EV sales.
- Even laggard Australia is waking up: 9.65% of new car sales were EVs in 2024 (114,000 units), with projections hitting 15-19% by 2026.
This isn’t a niche trend , it’s a death knell for petrol. Goldman Sachs predicts oil demand will peak by 2034, while the IEA warns demand growth will shrivel to 0.4 million barrels per day by 2028.
Translation: Petrol stations will become as relevant as Blockbuster stores.
The Math Doesn’t Lie: Fuel Stations Are a Terrible Investment
1. Profit Margins Are Collapsing
- 60-75% of fuel stations globally will be unprofitable by 2035 without drastic reinvention.
- Urban stations face the worst carnage: Kalibrate projects 75% fuel volume losses by 2040 in high-EV areas.
- Diesel and petrol now make up just 38.2% of EU car sales , and Australia’s NVES policy will replicate this decline.
2. Conversion Costs Will Bankrupt You
Installing a single fast EV charger costs $500,000-$1 million. For context, BP’s Australian EV rollout requires 600 chargers just to stay relevant. Meanwhile, petrol stations earn $0.05-$0.10 per litre , a margin thinner than the patience of Tesla owners waiting for CCS adapters.
3. Your Real Estate Is About to Crash
Fuel stations occupy prime land, but their value hinges on fossil fuel demand. As EVs dominate:
- Home charging (used by 60% of EV owners) eliminates routine station visits.
- Highway stations might survive by catering to trucks, but urban sites? Enjoy competing with pharmacies and coffee shops for your forecourt.
Australia’s Regulatory Noose Tightens
1. The NVES Will Crush Petrol Cars
The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard mandates steeper emissions cuts, forcing automakers to prioritise EVs. By 2030, 50% of new cars sold will be electric and those drivers won’t visit your servo.
2. Zoning Laws Are Coming
While Victoria’s EPA twiddles its thumbs, states like WA and NT already enforce 50-100m setbacks from homes and schools. Once federal laws catch up, new stations will need $1M+ in permits just to break ground.
3. Banks Are Ditching Fossil Assets
Major lenders now avoid fossil fuel projects over “stranded asset” risks. Try securing a loan for a petrol station when the IEA predicts oil demand will drop 200,000 barrels daily by 2030.
The “But What If…” Copium
1. “EV Adoption Is Overhyped!”
Tell that to Norway, where 86% of new cars are electric, or California, where 91m buffers protect schools from benzene. Australia’s 9.65% EV share in 2024 is just the start and it’s accelerating faster than the 1990s internet.
2. “People Will Always Need Petrol!”
Sure, and people still buy fax machines. But with 50% of oil demand vanishing by 2040, your customer base will be Uber drivers in 2005 Corollas, not exactly a thriving market.
3. “We’ll Just Add EV Chargers Later!”
Cool. Now you’re competing with BP, Ampol, Tesla, and shopping centres all while retrofitting stations at 10x the cost of building EV-native sites. Good luck.
The Bottom Line: Darwinism for Developers
Building a petrol station in 2025 isn’t just tone-deaf , it’s professional malpractice. The data, the markets, and the entire energy transition scream one truth: fossil fuel infrastructure is a corpse on life support.
Smart money is fleeing to EV charging, grid storage, or literally anything else. The rest? Enjoy your “For Lease” signs and environmental lawsuits.
To developers still considering this insanity: Your accountants will hate you. Your neighbours will mock you. And your grandkids will ask why you didn’t just invest in Bitcoin instead.
SafeSeparations.org advocates for science-based planning laws. Join us in fighting reckless fossil fuel developments.